by Simon Wilson
March 4 2025
Australia's ongoing battle against tobacco has led to some of the strictest regulations in the world, particularly concerning vaping and cigarette pricing. While the government has framed these policies as necessary for public health, the unintended consequences have sparked a growing crisis.
In every government inquiry leading up to the pseudo-prohibition of vaping in Australia, evidence and opinion was put forward by Harm Reduction Experts that doing so would only create and grow a strong black market in both tobacco and vaping products.
By pushing the medicalisation of vaping (The Prescription/Phamacy-Only Model), our Government has flat-out ignored evidence presented to them by highly respected independent experts in favour of cultivated testimony by individuals funded by the Government and other agencies with vested financial interests and ideologies.
These independent warnings have been basically ignored every-time they were brought forward.
Dr. James Martin, a Senior Lecturer in Criminology at Deakin University, has actively participated in Australian parliamentary inquiries on vaping, he offered expert insights into the unintended consequences of stringent vaping regulations. In his testimonies, Dr. Martin emphasised that prohibitionist approaches could inadvertently fuel black markets and organised crime, drawing parallels to historical drug prohibition outcomes.
Despite his expert contributions, there is concern that such perspectives have not been adequately considered in policy formulations. For instance, Dr. Colin Mendelsohn highlighted that the Senate Committee overseeing vaping reforms disregarded submissions from global experts on tobacco harm reduction, including insights similar to those provided by Dr. Martin.
This apparent oversight has led to critiques suggesting that current policies may not effectively address the complexities of vaping and would instead perpetuate negative outcomes.
For a more detailed understanding of Dr. Martin's position, you can view his testimony at the Vic Parliamentary Inquiry into Vaping:
Dr. Colin Mendelsohn highlighted that the Senate Committee overseeing vaping reforms disregarded submissions from global experts on tobacco harm reduction, including insights similar to those provided by Dr. Martin.
There is no doubt the prohibitive cost of cigarettes and the restrictive approach to vaping have fuelled an illicit tobacco market, increased crime rates, and placed significant financial burdens on both consumers and law enforcement.
The nationwide Illicit Vaping Black Market is estimated to be over 2 BILLION dollars annually.
In fact it is second, only to marijuana, in terms of drug prevalence/revenue in Australia.
This is putting in effect HALF the entire Victorian Police budget allocation directly into the hands of organised crime!
How does this make sense ?
The Political cost
(or how much of your money the Pollies are spending on their folly)
“In 2024 the Australian Federal Government announced an investment of $188.5 million to support a major Australian Border Force crackdown on the importation of illicit tobacco “
“There have also been major significant state funding announcements against illicit tobacco and nicotine vaping products, these include:
• Over $300 million in new funding has been allocated by governments across Australia to help in the fight against illicit tobacco.
(Queensland: $28.5 million – New South Wales: $6.8 million and South Australia: $16 million)
• $75 million in increased funding for the regulation of vaping products by the Commonwealth Government. “
That's over ½ a billion dollars of your money and it doesn't count in goofy schemes like paying “influencers” $25,000 each to make a “ Vaping Bad M'kay” tik tok or youtube short vids.
Heck they even engaged a media firm to offer $3000 each to persons willing to appear on camera or in text telling people how “Vaping ruined my health/life/whatever” even if that person had never even touched a vape ( like what? Seriously?)
The World's Most Expensive Cigarettes
Australia's cigarette prices are the highest in the world, with a pack of 25 costing upwards of AUD 50. This is due to a series of aggressive excise tax hikes, implemented as a deterrent to smoking. While these measures have succeeded slightly in reducing “official” smoking rates, they have also created a lucrative black market.
It is officially estimated that the Black Market now fulfils 18% of the total tobacco market, but anecdotally, this figure climbs astronomically maybe to 50%!
It's important to note that while the Tax revenue from legal tobacco is plummeting in recent years the National Waste Water monitoring surveys indicate that nicotine use in Australia is in fact increasing.
Organised crime syndicates have capitalised on the demand for cheaper alternatives, smuggling illicit tobacco into the country and operating underground distribution networks.
The illicit tobacco trade is now worth an estimated AUD 3 billion annually, with Taskforce Lunar—a specialised Victorian police unit—having been established to combat the growing issue. The surge in criminal activity associated with illicit tobacco sales, including violent turf wars and arson attacks on legal tobacco retailers, highlights the dangers of excessive taxation without viable harm-reduction alternatives.
It is an amazing fact that even the Cancer Council recognises that the current cost of ONE pack of cigarettes per day can feed a family of SIX for that day comparatively.
“Cancer Council NSW research recently found that you can feed a family of six a healthy breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snacks for a whole day for the price of a pack of 25 cigarettes. “
The Impact of Vaping Prohibition
Despite international evidence supporting vaping as a less harmful alternative to smoking, Australia insists on taking a prohibitionist approach. The federal government classifies nicotine-containing e-cigarettes as prescription-only or pharmacy-only products, making access difficult for adult smokers seeking safer alternatives.
Despite the government's insistence that vapes will be available to users via any pharmacy, the real-world application has resulted in the vast majority of pharmacies refusing to stock or dispense vaping products.
One percent of surveyed pharmacies? Just one 1% ???
Does this sound like a well thought out and considered option being adopted by the only “legal “ avenue to obtain vaping products for Harm Reduction purposes?
This policy has pushed many vapers toward the black market, where unregulated and potentially unsafe products thrive.
A recent study from the Australian National University found that while vaping carries some risks, it is significantly less harmful than smoking. Many countries, including the UK and New Zealand, have embraced vaping as a smoking cessation tool, leading to declines in cigarette consumption. Australia's refusal to follow suit has left smokers with limited legal options, reinforcing dependence on traditional cigarettes or driving them to illicit sources.
The Economic and Social Costs
The combined impact of high cigarette prices and restricted vaping access has placed immense financial strain on lower-income Australians. Tobacco excise budgeted revenue exceeds AUD 17 billion annually, but much of this burden falls on society's most vulnerable populations. Rather than encouraging smoking cessation, these policies often push individuals further into financial distress.
The enforcement of these regulations also demands significant resources. Law enforcement agencies are engaged in a costly battle against tobacco smuggling and illegal vape sales, diverting attention from other pressing issues, such as violent crime and drug trafficking. Meanwhile, legitimate businesses are caught in the crossfire, with tobacconists frequently targeted by criminal syndicates for selling legal products at government-mandated prices.
Escalation of Arson Attacks
At the time of drafting this article 220 firebombings in Australia have occurred that can be directly linked to the ongoing Tobacco Wars.
Since March 2023 until June 2024, Victoria witnessed over 120 arson attacks on tobacco retailers, prompting the establishment of Taskforce Lunar to address the escalating violence.
Similarly, South Australia has reported at least 17 arson incidents linked to the illicit tobacco trade, underscoring the widespread nature of this issue.
Law Enforcement Expenditures:
Taskforce Lunar and VIPER
In response to the escalating violence linked to the illicit tobacco trade, Victoria Police established specialised units such as Taskforce Lunar and the VIPER Taskforce. These units focus on dismantling organised crime syndicates involved in arson, extortion, and firearms-related offences. While specific budgetary allocations for these task forces are not publicly disclosed, their extensive operations indicate substantial financial commitments. For instance, within a six-month period, these task forces executed 84 search warrants across retail stores and associated premises, leading to the seizure of nearly 600,000 vapes, 3.25 million cigarettes, and over a tonne of loose tobacco.
Victoria Police does not publicly disclose the specific budget allocated to Taskforce Lunar.
Established in October 2023 to combat organised crime syndicates involved in the illicit tobacco trade, Taskforce Lunar operates under the broader financial framework of Victoria Police.
For the 2023–24 financial year, Victoria Police received a total output cost budget of $4.128 billion to deliver policing services across the state.
While the exact funding for Taskforce Lunar remains unspecified, its operational achievements within the first year include:
• Arrests: Over 80 individuals apprehended for offences such as extortion, arson, firearms possession, and aggravated burglary.
• Search Warrants Executed: More than 200 search warrants carried out on tobacco stores across Victoria, suspected of selling illicit tobacco and vapes.
• Seizures: Confiscation of cash, illicit tobacco, and vapes totalling in excess of $37 million, along with 19 firearms, including seven handguns.
(Without specific financial disclosures, the exact cost of Taskforce Lunar to Victoria Police cannot be determined from publicly available information.)
It is important to consider the far-reaching costs that many people will not consider when organising things like raids and seizures by the police.
No less than 20 different agencies were used in just one of Taskforce Lunars operations.
“Supported by the Australian Federal Police (AFP), the Australian Taxation Office (ATO), Australian Border Force’s (ABF) Illicit Tobacco Taskforce and Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), officers today executed more than 27 search warrants across Victoria as part of an ongoing investigation targeting serious organised crime in the illicit tobacco market.
With assistance from Taskforce Lunar, the Armed Crime Squad, the Illicit Firearms Squad, Financial Crime Squad, Criminal Proceeds Squad, Joint Organised Crime Taskforce, Echo Taskforce, Cybercrime Squad, Joint Anti-Child Exploitation Team, Wyndham, Knox, Hobsons Bay, Echuca, Cobram, Ararat, Northern Grampians and Geelong Crime Investigation Units, Westgate Divisional Response Unit, Eastern Region Crime Squad and State Highway Patrol, search warrants were executed from 5am this morning at tobacco stores, warehouses and residential addresses statewide.
Three industrial properties in Truganina were searched, as well as residential addresses in Truganina, Hoppers Crossing (3), Glen Waverley, Lara, Grovedale, Footscray and Mount Cottrell, and tobacco stores in Herne Hill, Bell Park, Grovedale, Werribee (2), Dallas, Kensington, Boronia, Ararat (3), Kyabram, Echuca (2) and Yarrawonga.”
“Over 130 members were involved in today’s activities, including the entirety of the VIPER Taskforce office. “
That is 130 Police Members boots on the ground on a one day operational exercise!
Then consider that each section is tied up for weeks or months investigating, cataloguing evidence and preparing it for possible prosecution.
Thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of man hours, resources and operational deficits directly linked to policing for what is in reality an adult consumer product or should be one, comparable to alcohol, but instead is turned into an illicit market on a political whim.
It is certainly not a Public Health exercise.
Now let's consider other costs to each and every one of us, things like Insurance, Ambulance and Fire responses, and just the day-to-day Police Crews being dragged away from their regular duties to respond to incidents like the ongoing fire-bombings.
Even the cost to business's that have NO connection to tobacco or organised crime, but have the misfortune of being in close proximity to a targeted business.
Insurance Industry's Response:
The heightened risk associated with these arson attacks has led insurers to reassess coverage policies for businesses involved in tobacco sales:
• Policy Declinations: Insurers have begun declining coverage for tobacconists due to the increased risk of firebombing and associated criminal activities.
• Premium Increases: In regions like South Australia, retailers face annual insurance premium hikes of up to $100,000, a direct consequence of the ongoing illicit tobacco war.
• Coverage Voidance: Landlords leasing premises to businesses engaged in illegal tobacco sales risk having their insurance policies voided, especially if illicit activities are discovered on their properties.
Impact on Surrounding Businesses and Communities:
The repercussions extend beyond the targeted tobacconists:
• Collateral Damage: Adjacent businesses and properties suffer from fire damage, leading to increased insurance claims and potential premium hikes for neighboring establishments.
• Insurance Accessibility: Businesses in high-risk areas, even those not directly involved in tobacco sales, may face difficulties obtaining insurance coverage or encounter elevated premiums due to the perceived risk.
• Economic Strain: Elevated insurance costs and the threat of uninsured losses can lead to business closures, job losses, and economic downturns in affected communities.
Australia's aggressive stance on tobacco control, while aiming to improve public health, has inadvertently cultivated a black market fraught with violence and criminal activity. The resulting arson attacks have strained the insurance industry, leading to coverage denials and increased premiums that affect not only tobacconists but also surrounding businesses and communities. Addressing this complex issue requires a balanced approach that considers public health objectives alongside the economic and social well-being of affected regions.
Australia's stringent tobacco control measures have inadvertently led to a surge in arson attacks targeting tobacco retailers. These incidents have imposed significant financial burdens on communities, encompassing law enforcement operations, emergency response services, and associated public resources.
Emergency Services Response Costs:
Arson incidents necessitate the deployment of various emergency services, including fire brigades, ambulance services, and police units. The economic implications of these responses are considerable:
• Fire Brigade Services:
Depending on the State or Territory involved, attendance from Fire Brigades is not a cheap thing. To give you some idea the turnout cost of a single fire truck to something as simple as a false alert is between $1600 to over $2000 per unit.
For something as serious as an actual arson you could expect from between 3-7 vehicles attending each and every incident. Every vehicle in the MFB has a minimum crew of four officers That's 12 to 30 firefighters attending for multiple hours at a time, expensive not only in dollar terms but also in resource terms, while they are attending the arson, that is 12 to 30 less fireman free to pull you out of a car wreck or save your house from being burnt to the ground!
• Ambulance Response Costs:
In Victoria, ambulance services are not free, and the costs can be substantial. For a standard emergency road ambulance transport, patients can expect to pay approximately $1,396 in urban areas and up to $2,059 in regional or rural areas.
It's important to note that these fees apply regardless of the nature of the emergency, including medical incidents or fire-related emergencies where ambulance attendance is required.
• Police Vehicular response:
For each individual arson attempt or success at a minimum there would be one crew in attendance, most likely in a city environment where there would be multiple units called in to establish cordons and maintain traffic flow around the incident to protect and make safe the area for residents and traffic in the vicinity of an incident.
That's 2-10 officers taken out of performing regular duties for the duration of the event and until the area is safe for the public. This is a period of hours, not a short attend and go scenario. Also consider the cost of the actual arson investigation, identification of suspects, apprehension, and legal procedural time allocated to each event, including court expenses.
COST PER FIREBOMBING
Fire Brigade: 3-6 units call out of $1800 per vehicle $5400-$11000
Police: 1-5 units for say 3-8 hours (2 to 10 members @) Avg salary $47 per hour $141- $470 in man hours alone
Ambulance: 1-2 crews removed from service for 1-2 hours per incident . $1400- $2059 per vehicle to attend. $4000 +
Taking the above figures, you can factor in a monetary value of $10,000 to $20,000 per incident as the base cost of emergency services just to attend, its important to realise this is the net cost , not the budget amounts which would be multiples of the above figures per attendance.
It is important to also consider the value and costs experienced to rental and commercial properties in vicinity affected for weeks , adjacent business's may be closed for months, in some cases more than a year.
Each and every residence or business affected by these arsons pays an enormous cost in lost earnings etc, imagine being told you could not receive an income for the next 6 months simply because some punk wanted to earn $500 from a crime syndicate for lobbing a Molotov cocktail at a business.
Factor in traffic disruption, police resources, investigation costs, thousands of police fire ambulance man hours every year, then factor in the crime unit investigations, the legal teams, the prosecutions, court times, on and on it goes …
All because the Government wants you to quit smoking THEIR way (or indeed KEEP smoking for that sweet sweet revenue)
It is political, financial and legal nonsense that all costs the community billions of dollars!
Aggregate Financial Impact
Considering the frequency of arson attacks linked to the illicit tobacco trade, the cumulative financial impact on communities is substantial. The allocation of resources to specialised law enforcement units, when combined with the costs incurred by emergency services per incident, underscores the extensive economic strain resulting from these criminal activities.
Remember that this these costs are simply because the Government insists on a prohibitive pathway rather than a sensible one where vaping is treated as an adult consumer product, like it is in pretty much every other democratic western society eg, New Zealand, most of Europe, the USA or the UK.
Conclusion
The proliferation of arson attacks associated with Australia's illicit tobacco market has led to significant financial burdens on law enforcement agencies and emergency response services.
It has added vast amounts to insurance premiums and burdens affected business's and those surrounding them.
Australia's stringent tobacco policies, characterised by high taxation and restrictive vaping regulations, have inadvertently fostered a lucrative black market for illicit tobacco products. This underground trade has led to a surge in arson attacks targeting tobacconists, significantly impacting businesses, surrounding properties, and the insurance landscape.
Addressing this issue requires a comprehensive approach that balances public health objectives with the economic and social well-being of affected communities.
A Need for Reform
Australia’s current approach to tobacco and vaping is increasingly proving unsustainable. The black market for cigarettes and vapes continues to grow, crime rates linked to illicit sales are rising, and the public health benefits of strict policies are being undermined by unintended consequences.
A more balanced regulatory framework—one that embraces harm reduction by legalising and regulating vaping while maintaining sensible tobacco taxes—could mitigate many of these issues.
If the government truly aims to reduce smoking-related harm, it must reconsider its stance. Failing to adapt will only deepen the cycle of crime, financial hardship, and public health challenges that Australia’s tobacco wars have already unleashed.