The Smoking Gun
- Alan Gor
- 26 minutes ago
- 8 min read
Alan Gore - 27 September 2025
For decades, Australia was celebrated as a global leader in tobacco control. Plain packaging, ad bans, and high excise taxes — each reform was sold as world-leading. Smoking rates fell, public health was hailed, and the story seemed settled.
Then came the vaping panic.
In 2024, Health Minister Mark Butler introduced sweeping prohibition laws on nicotine vapes. The stated goal was clear: protect young people from a “new generation of nicotine addiction.”
But in July 2025, Roy Morgan released data that told a very different story. Smoking among 18–24-year-olds had increased, reversing years of decline.
This should have been front-page news. It was the nightmare scenario Butler himself had once acknowledged: a “squeezed balloon effect” where shutting off access to vapes pushes young people back to cigarettes.
Instead, the story vanished almost as quickly as it appeared. And thanks to Freedom of Information (FOI) documents, we now know why.
FOI Revelation: Department Misrepresented Roy Morgan Data
One of the most striking findings from the FOI documents is how the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing handled Roy Morgan’s July 2025 release on smoking and vaping trends.
In an internal email, staff claimed:
“Roy Morgan has published the following press release – Smoking increases among young Australians since ‘vaping sales ban’ in 2024 – Roy Morgan Research that uses data from 2024 through to May 2024 to assert that smoking rates have increased since the vaping reforms – particularly among 18–24yrs.”
This framing is not accurate. Here’s why:
Roy Morgan’s actual release date: July 2025.
Data timeframe: Through December 2024 and into early 2025, not just “through to May 2024.”
Focus: The report clearly highlighted that smoking among 18–24-year-olds increased after the vaping sales ban.
By misrepresenting the timeframe as ending in May 2024, the Department downplayed the strength of the finding. A dataset covering only up to May could be dismissed as a short-term fluctuation. But a dataset running through late 2024 and into 2025 shows the post-ban smoking rise was sustained and significant.
This suggests two possibilities:
Misrepresentation: The Department deliberately minimised the scope of the dataset to blunt the political damage.
Ignorance: They misunderstood the data they were briefing staff and ministers with (less likely, given they also referenced Cancer Council Victoria’s detailed analysis of the same dataset).
Either way, the effect is the same: the public narrative was shaped to understate the evidence that Australia’s vaping prohibition backfired by driving young adults back to smoking.
This is part of a broader pattern: while Mark Butler and colleagues have shifted their narrative to blame the “saturation” of illicit tobacco from overseas, the Department has quietly massaged inconvenient data into something more politically manageable. It reflects a striking lack of self-awareness—policies designed to protect public health are instead fuelling the very black market they now decry as the “biggest threat” to tobacco control.
The FOI Trail
The FOI emails are devastating in their clarity. Far from a neutral data release, the Roy Morgan report was suppressed, embargoed, and repackaged.
One departmental email spells it out:
“The Roy Morgan article that was shared yesterday has been removed from the RM website as the claims about the results being directly linked to the reform were unfounded — however, as far as we are aware, the calculations/trends are sound.”
Read that again. The numbers were sound. The trends were real. The link to policy was politically inconvenient. So the report disappeared.
Another message makes the chain of command crystal clear:
“The Roy Morgan data is embargoed — they cannot be shared beyond MRU until published (expected to occur on 16 July). I have attached the Summary Report of the Roy Morgan data, developed by Cancer Council Victoria (CCV) and will be published on our website.”
In other words:
Roy Morgan gathered the data.
The Market Research Unit (MRU) embargoed it.
Cancer Council Victoria rewrote it into a “summary report.”
The public got the sanitised version.
The Chain of Control
The FOI trail reveals a simple but devastating pipeline of narrative management:
Roy Morgan → Market Research Unit (MRU) → Cancer Council Victoria (CCV) → Public Messaging
At each step, independence was stripped away. What began as data became spin.
One official admitted bluntly:
“Since the article is no longer available, I am trying to obtain an extract of the tables that were included — will provide them back when we get them.”
Not “publish the results.” Not “let Australians see the truth.” Just: extract, reframe, control.
This is not how science works. This is how propaganda works.
Butler’s Denial vs. the FOI Record
When questioned, Mark Butler dismissed the Roy Morgan findings:
“I had a couple of issues with it… it dealt with a different age cohort… and there was no engagement, as far as I’m advised, between the government and Roy Morgan.”
But the FOI record tells a different story:
On timelines: Butler claimed much of the data predated the reforms. False. Roy Morgan tracked well into 2025, capturing the post-ban reality.
On cohorts: He argued they studied the “wrong” group. But 18–24-year-olds are the critical cohort — legal adults, the group most likely to smoke again when denied access to vaping. Generation Vape studied under-18s, an entirely different population.
On involvement: Butler insisted the government had “no engagement” with Roy Morgan. Yet FOI shows MRU embargoing the report, CCV rewriting it, and internal discussions about “sensitivities.” That is engagement.
Most damning is what Butler didn’t mention at all — inconvenient data already sitting in his department’s briefings:
“The SAHMRI data released in January 2025 did show an increase of smoking rates among 15–29 year olds at 11.9% compared with 8.7% in 2023…”
That’s a 36% jump in smoking among young people in just one year.
NSW data showed the same pattern: smoking among 16–24-year-olds rising from 10.9% to 11.6%. Even the so-called “plateau” in vaping was really just evidence that prohibition wasn’t driving rates down.
Butler ignored it all. Instead, he cherry-picked Generation Vape (under-18s) and headline-friendly slices of SAHMRI to claim “fewer young people are smoking.”
The truth: the government had the data. They just chose not to tell you.
The Spin Machine
Once the Roy Morgan report was killed, officials and health lobbyists swung into action. The playbook was obvious:
Promote Generation Vape — a study of under-18s — as proof that the laws were “working.” Never mind that the real crisis was among 18–24-year-olds, the very group Roy Morgan showed turning back to cigarettes.
Spin SAHMRI toplines — emphasise a 0.3% decline in daily smoking while burying a 3.2% rise in overall prevalence.
Cherry-pick NSW and Queensland surveys — cite “stability” while ignoring the upward ticks in youth smoking.
This wasn’t evidence-based health policy. It was reputational triage.
The Department’s “key responses” to Roy Morgan’s youth smoking data don’t even bother engaging with the substance. Instead:
They admit they cannot interrogate the analysis — but still dismiss it.
They lean on Generation Vape (a study of 14–17-year-olds) as if it cancels out Roy Morgan’s findings on 18–24-year-olds. Different cohort, different trend — but that’s glossed over.
They cherry-pick SAHMRI’s vaping data (“vaping reduced by a third”) while ignoring the same report’s 36% jump in smoking among 15–29-year-olds.
They cite “stabilisation” in NSW vaping rates as if flat numbers are proof of success.
And then comes the ideological sledgehammer:
“Credible research suggests e-cigarette use is a strong predictor of future tobacco use…”
This tired “gateway” trope has been recycled for decades, despite real-world evidence showing vaping is replacing smoking, not fuelling it. But it’s convenient for spin: frame vaping as the problem, bury the inconvenient reality that smoking is rising again.
The FOI makes it plain: rather than admit policy failure, the Department circled the wagons. They built a defensive comms pack, leaned on Cancer Council talking points, and ignored their own data showing youth smoking was climbing.
The Consequences
While officials spun the numbers, the real-world damage mounted:
A booming black market: Australia’s illicit tobacco trade is now estimated at 60% of consumption. Firebombings, shootings, and gangland feuds are the new normal.
Young adults pushed back to smoking: With vapes banned, cigarettes — deadly but legal — became the fallback.
Families left behind: As one parent said, “I’m not afraid to die. What I hate is knowing the pain my children will experience when I do.”
These are not abstract statistics. They are human costs, borne because ideology trumped harm reduction.
Global Context
Australia is not alone. The UK, New Zealand, and parts of the EU have faced similar debates. But unlike Australia, most recognised the role of vaping in harm reduction.
The UK’s Office for Health Improvement flatly states:
“Vaping is substantially less harmful than smoking. It is one of the most effective aids for quitting.”
New Zealand briefly flirted with Australia’s hardline stance — then reversed course after smoking ticked upwards.
Australia, by contrast, doubled down. And now, with smoking rising and crime exploding, officials are left managing optics instead of outcomes.
The Bigger Picture
The FOI trail doesn’t just reveal a failed policy. It reveals a system.
Data suppression: reports embargoed, removed, rewritten.
Narrative control: selective publication, “summary reports,” PR spin.
Political cover: a Minister insisting there’s “no problem” while the numbers climb.
This is how trust in public health erodes. Not because of “Big Tobacco” conspiracies — but because officials are caught manipulating the truth.
A National Scandal
Australia’s vape ban has failed — and the government knows it. Instead of confronting the consequences, they buried the evidence.
The Roy Morgan affair is not just a footnote in tobacco control. It is a case study in censorship, spin, and the price of ideology.
Every firebombed tobacconist, every young adult lured back to cigarettes, every preventable cancer in the years to come — all are tied to this prohibition and the cover-up that followed.
Australians deserve better. They deserve honesty. They deserve policy shaped by evidence, not politics.
Until then, one truth remains unavoidable: youth smoking is rising again — and it’s happening on Mark Butler’s watch.
Timeline of Suppression and Spin
Jan 2025 – SAHMRI data quietly shows smoking among 15–29 year olds up from 8.7% (2023) to 11.9% (2024). Daily smoking falls slightly, but overall prevalence rises sharply.
July 2025 (early) – Roy Morgan publishes: “Smoking increases among young Australians since the ‘vaping sales ban’ in 2024.”
Same day – Department of Health officials scramble. One email notes:
“The Roy Morgan article … has been removed from the RM website as the claims about the results being directly linked to the reform were unfounded — however, as far as we are aware, the calculations/trends are sound.”
Next day – Internal directive:
“Both the s22 and Roy Morgan data reports are embargoed — they cannot be shared beyond MRU until published (expected to occur on 16 July).”
The following week, Cancer Council Victoria (CCV) steps in:
“I have attached the Summary Report of the Roy Morgan data, developed by CCV and will be published on our website.”
July 16, 2025 – Sanitised CCV “summary” replaces Roy Morgan’s original release. The public never sees the original tables.
Press conferences – Mark Butler dismisses Roy Morgan:
“There was no engagement, as far as I’m advised, between the government and Roy Morgan.”
FOI proves otherwise: MRU embargo, CCV repackaging, and coordinated messaging.
Final Word
The story is no longer just about vaping. It’s about trust.
The FOI trail shows a government and its allies more interested in controlling the narrative than confronting reality. Independent data was suppressed, repackaged, and spun until it fit the official line. Meanwhile, the real-world consequences — rising youth smoking, an exploding black market, and escalating organised crime — were pushed out of view.
Mark Butler promised Australians he would protect young people from nicotine addiction. Instead, his prohibition has driven a generation back to cigarettes, handed billions to organised crime, and left families bearing the human cost.
This is the smoking gun: when evidence didn’t match ideology, it was buried. That is not leadership. It is a cover-up.
Australia deserves better — policy based on transparency, harm reduction, and truth, not politics. Until that happens, every fresh increase in youth smoking, every tobacconist firebombed, every life cut short will sit squarely on this government and Mark Butler's watch.